Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
