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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest upset.

However the current field is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions declining and recent strugglers improving in unison. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a wild and fun season, he's facing five other elite coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

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